Sidelines

Pomeroy says Cats will go 9-7

Update: Pomeroy's game-by-game predictions have the Cats going 10-6 in the SEC. But his cumulative prediction puts the Cats at 9-7. He has this disclaimer: "Projected record is based on chances of winning, and therefore may not conform to the
cumulative game-by-game predictions. This accounts for the unexpected results that
will inevitably happen during the season."

On radio appearances the past couple of nights -- first with Larry Glover on WVLK on Tuesday; then with Dick Gabriel on WLAP last night -- I offered the optimistic view that it was not out of the realm of reality for this Kentucky basketball team to wind up 12-4 in the SEC, which would mean Billy Gillispie's group would be 18-11 going into the SEC Tournament.

A couple of wins there would hit the magic 20 mark and possibly catapult the Cats into the NCAA.

Not so fast, says Ken Pomeroy.

The statistical wizard predicts on his kenpom.com site that Kentucky will end up 9-7 in the SEC and 15-14 overall heading into the post-season tourney at Atlanta.

 

Once Pomeroy crunches his numbers, here's what he sees:

• Prediction                            Chance of winning
• Kentucky 65, Georgia 64             55 percent
• Kentucky 73, Auburn 67              73 percent
• Kentucky 76, Alabama 68            76 percent
• Vanderbilt 73, Kentucky 72          46 percent
• Kentucky 70, LSU 64                    73 percent
• Kentucky 69, Georgia 61              82 percent
• Kentucky 67, Arkansas 65            58 percent
• Kentucky 75, Ole Miss 73             58 percent
• Tennessee 81, Kentucky 69          13 percent
• South Carolina 69, Kentucky 68    44 percent
• Florida 70, Kentucky 69                50 percent

Video: Rondo's highlight bounce pass

This video of Rajon Rondo's long and unusual bounce pass has been making the rounds on the internet.

It's from the Celtics' blowout win over Miami last night.

Rondo had 23 points in the win.

UK's points per possession numbers

Here are UK's points per possession totals, offense and defense, for the first 18 games:

• Opponent                     Off          Def      Dec
• 1. Central Arkansas     1.106      0.635       W
• 2. Gardner-Webb         0.938      1.124       L
• 3. Liberty                    1.240      0.843       W
• 4. Texas Southern        1.236      0.522      W
• 5. Stony Brook             0.940       0.759      W
• 6. North Carolina         0.994       1.160       L
• 7. @Indiana                 0.766       1.057       L
• 8. UAB (Lou)                1.173       1.217       L
• 9. @Houston                0.991       1.175       L
• 10. Tenn. Tech            0.971       0.673       W
• 11. San Diego              1.023       1.189       L
• 12. Fla. International    1.260      0.720       W
• 13. Louisville                0.917      1.115       L
• 14. Vanderbilt               0.986      0.870       W
• 15. @Miss. State           0.989      1.051       L
• 16. @Florida                 1.036       1.157       L
• 17. Tennessee              1.175       1.032      W
• 18. South Carolina        1.240        1.140      W

• Stats
  • Record when defensive ppp is 1.00 or higher: 2-9
  • Record when defensive ppp is 0.99 or lower: 7-0
  • Record when offensive ppp is 1.00 or higher: 6-3
  • Record when offensive ppp is 0.99 or lower: 3-6
  • Best offensive ppp: 1.240 vs. Liberty and South Carolina
  • Worst offensive ppp: 0.766 at Indiana
  • Best defensive ppp:  0.522 vs. Texas Southern
  • Worst defensive ppp: 1.217 vs. UAB
  • Offensive ppp in games involving Jasper: 1.082
  • Offensive ppp in games not involving Jasper: 1.025
  • Offensive ppp in games involving Meeks: 1.076
  • Offensvie ppp in games not involving Meeks: 1.026
  • Offensive ppp in games involving Jasper and Meeks: 1.101
  • Offensive ppp in games not involving both Jasper and Meeks: 1.031

Note: The formula for possessions is field goal attempts minus offensive rebounds plus turnovers plus (0.475 times free throw attempts). Then divide the number of points a team scores by its number of possessions to get points per possession.

Woodson's accuracy

A few contentious blog readers took issue with a post yesterday in which I described UK quarterback Andre Woodson as an accurate passer. Though it always tickles me to be labeled a "homer," when so many others believe me to be a nabob of negativism with regards to the Cats, let's look at Woodson's completion percentage compared to other top quarterback prospects for this year's draft.

Ordered by NCAA pass efficiency rankings:

• Quarterback, team                  Pct.        YPA        Rating
• 5. Colt Brennan, Hawaii           70.39       8.52        159.8
• 8. Brian Brohm, Louisville        65.12       8.51        152.4
• 20. Andre Woodson, UK            63.76       7.96        148.9
• 28. J.D. Booty, USC                  63.24      6.94         138.0
• 37. Erik Ainge, Tennessee         62.62      6.79        135.5
• 53. Chad Henne, Michigan         58.27      6.97        130.5
• 61. Matt Flynn, Boston College    59.33     6.89        127.0

Note: YPA is yards per attempt.

SEC standings and schedule

Here are the SEC standings headed into tonight:

• East              Record         Next game                                       
• Florida               5-1          Saturday at Arkansas
• Tennessee          5-1          Saturday at Mississippi State
• Kentucky            3-2           Saturday at Georgia
• Georgia              2-2          Tonight at South Carolina
• Vanderbilt           2-3           Tonight at Ole Miss
• South Carolina     1-4          Tonight, plays host to Georgia

• West                 Record        Next game                                    
• Mississippi St.     5-0          Tonight at Arkansas
• Arkansas             3-2          Tonight, plays host to Mississippi St.
• Auburn                2-3          Tonight, plays host to LSU
• Ole Miss              2-3          Tonight, plays host to Vanderbilt
• Alabama             1-5          Saturday, plays host to LSU
• LSU                    0-5           Tonight at Auburn

Lofton is starting to heat up

Welcome to the thaw.

Had to happen sooner rather than later. Chris Lofton is too good a player to continue shooting the basketball the way he had been shooting. And in Tennessee's 93-85 win over Alabama last night, Lofton proved that yes indeed, he is warming up.

The senior guard scored 23 points as the Vols, now 5-1 in the SEC, toppled the Tide in Tuscaloosa. It was Lofton's third straight game of 20-or-more points. He drilled five-of-nine three-pointers, bringing his total to 17 made three-pointers in 32 attempts over his last three games. That qualifies has heating up. In Lofton's previous three SEC games, the ex-Mason County star was a pedestrian 5-of-16 from behind the line.

Lofton was obviously starting to regain his touch the first half at UK on Jan. 22. He was quiet in the second as Kentucky rallied for the win. Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl claims that experience made Lofton realize he did have to score for this UT team to win. He's certainly picked up the pace in the last two games, scoring a season-high 27 against Georgia and then 23 more last night.

Related links:

• Tennessee uses long-range shooting to down Alabama. [Birmingham News]
• Vols shoot past Tide. [Mobile Press-Register]
• With Lofton back in form, Tennessee looks tough. [Clarion-Ledger]
• Vols exorcise demons to win at Alabama. [Knoxville News-Sentinel]

Here is Lofton's game-by-game breakdown in the SEC:

• Date     Opp           Min    FG      3P       FT     O-D-R   PF   TP   A   TO   BS   S
• Jan. 9    Miss           30     3-9      2-5     2-2     2-1-3     0    10    2    1    1    1
• Jan. 12  @SC            28     2-6     1-5      0-0     0-3-3    3     5     0    4     0    0
• Jan. 17  Vandy          32     4-11   2-6      1-2     1-1-2     2   11    0     2    0    2
• Jan. 22   @UK           30     7-14   5-10     3-3    0-2-2     4    22    0    1     0    0
• Jan. 26    Ga            30     9-17    7-13     2-2    0-0-0    2    27    1    0     0    0
• Jan. 29    @Ala          33    8-13     5-9     2-2    2-1-3     1    23    2    1     0    0

Woodson better than scouts think

Reports from last week's Senior Bowl were not kind to UK quarterback Andre Woodson. The Sporting News claimed that the UK quarterback exhibited poor fundamentals, a scatter-shot arm and will need "a strong pro day" to avoid being a third- or fourth-round pick. Fox Sports reported that Woodson was erratic, but did have his moments.

Seems all a bit overblown, to me. You may be able to judge a player's athletic skills during a one-week, post-season camp in Alabama. But you can't really judge a player until he gets on a team, with a certain group of coaches. The guess here is that Woodson will do just fine. While he is not the most mobile quarterback, and his throwing motion has that dreaded "hitch," he has the accuracy, and possesses the skills to be an effective pro quarterback. We shall see.

Jimmy Smothers reports in the Gadsden Times that talking with scouts in Mobile led him to believe Woodson would go in the second round.

Meanwhile, Browns' general manager Phil Savage tells the Tuscaloosa News says Matt Ryan and Brian Brohm will go one-two at quarterback.

Audio: SEC teleconference

UK assistant coach Glynn Cyprien pinch-hit for head coach Billy Gillispie on the SEC teleconference this morning. Here's the audio.

Tubby's technical costs Minnesota in loss

As if playing at Ohio State, then falling behind 19-3 at the start wasn't enough to overcome, Minnesota's Tubby Smith didn't exactly help his Gophers cause by picking up a key technical foul in Ohio State's 76-60 victory on Saturday.

Minnesota had pulled to within 44-41 with 13:16 left, but then Smith picked up the unfortunate "T" at the 9:53 mark, helping a 6-0 Buckeyes run that helped Thad Matta's team establish control.

Minnesota dropped to 12-6 overall and 2-4 in the Big Ten. It doesn't look like the Gophers are going to make the NCAA Tournament -- No. 77 in the RPI -- but after last year's nine-win season, Smith's debut has been an inarguable success.

Here's the Minnesota-Ohio State game story: [Minneapolis Star-Tribune]

College basketball on TV Jan. 28-31

Monday

• Louisville at Connecticut (7:00, espn): Huge game for Louisville. Connecticut is on a roll with three consecutive triumphs, including an impressive victory at Indiana on Saturday.

• Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (9:00, espn): Bedlam, basketball style. Oklahoma engineered a nice victory at Baylor on Saturday to go 2-2 in the Big 12. Oklahoma State has lost four straight for poor Sean Sutton, whose sideline angst makes you think he might not be able to make it through the season.

• Cal-Poly at Pacific (11:00, espn2): Pacific is an unsung 14-5 overall and 5-1, good enough for second place in the Big West.

Tuesday

• Ohio State at Penn State (7:00, espn): At 5-2, Ohio State is gathering Big Ten momentum. Losers of five straight, Penn State long ago lost Big Mo.

• Virginia Commonwealth at George Mason (7:00, espn2): The top two teams in the Colonial. VCU is the pace-setter, 8-1 in league standings. George Mason is two games back at 6-3.

• Tennessee at Alabama (9:00, espn): Clash of a pair of entities that believe each is back on track. Tennessee rebounded from its Rupp Arena broadside to whip Georgia behind Chris Lofton's 27 points. After an 0-4 conference start, Alabama buried Auburn by 20 on Saturday.

Wednesday

• Virginia at Maryland (7:00, espn): Two teams still spitting over tough homecourt Sunday losses. Virginia lost in overtime to visiting Georgia Tech. Maryland led for three-quarters of its game with Duke, only to bow to the Blue Devils in the end.

• Cincinnati at West Virginia (7:00, espn2): Grudge match in Morgantown. First time West Virginia's Bob Huggins has been forced to play the school that threw him out the door a couple of years ago. Plus, UC coach Mick Cronin was a Cincinnati assistant who left Huggins for Rick Pitino and Louisville.

• Mississippi State at Arkansas (8:00, raycom): Two best teams in the SEC West. Mississippi State was marvelous in that 20-point whipping of Ole Miss on Saturday. After a two-game losing streak, Arkansas climbed back into the win column with a victory at LSU.

• Texas at Texas A&M (9:00, espn2): Texas A&M hopes its win over Oklahoma State on Saturday means the Aggies have left their funk behind. Texas has won three straight.

Thursday

• Boston College at North Carolina (7:00, espn): UNC's Tyler Hansbrough continues down his double-double path through the ACC.

• Providence at Notre Dame (7:00, espn2): Don't hear much talk about Notre Dame, but the Fighting Irish is 14-4 overall and 4-2 in the Big East.

• Indiana at Wisconsin (9:00, espn): Best game of the week. Two best teams in the Big 10, though Purdue probably deserves a spot in the conversation.

• North Carolina State at Duke (9:00, espn2): The prediction here is that Duke's offensive success after visiting the Phoenix Suns last summer will send more coaches to study Steve Nash and Co.

• Arizona at Southern Cal (10:00, fsn): Kevin O'Neill gets to ply his defensive scheme skills against O.J. Mayo.