It's not the age, it's the grade

Since the start of the great UK/middle school debate, I’ve received a few more e-mails accusing me of missing the point. Often times, guilty as charged.But not this time.

The point, claim the insistent e-mailers, is that California Golden Boy committee Michael Avery is not really an eighth-grader, but a 15-year-old eighth-grader. And in this case, age makes all the difference. A 15-year-old could be a freshman, as Avery would have been had he not been held back a year. Or a 15-year-old could be a high school sophomore. A young sophomore, but a high school sophomore.

There’s just one problem with that argument. A 15-year-old sophomore would have just two more years of high school before he was ready for college. Avery, as a 15-year-old eighth-grader, has four more years of high school before he even steps on the floor of Rupp Arena for Midnight Madness.

Four years is a long time. Avery could shoot up to 6-foot-9. He could forget how to dribble. He could audition for American Idol. He could grow tired of basketball. He could develop the skills of the next LeBron James. He could pull a Taylor King and re-open his recruiting, end up at Duke, only to transfer to Villanova a year later.

The point is we just don’t know.

Neither does Billy Gillispie. The Kentucky coach has made an educated guess here, to be sure. But he’s also created a buzz, which I can’t help but think was part of the master plan. If nothing else, Kentucky basketball’s name has been out there of late. The Cats are making news. The Cats are stirring things up. And despite the criticism leveled by people such as Jim Haney and Myles Brand, Gillispie isn’t backing down. He proved that by offering a scholarship to another ninth-grader.

Comments

[Allen Adams]

Spot on. The complaint with Tubby was he could not recruit and the program had dried up and was in doldrums. There's no doubt that Gillispie is out recruiting and there is a splashing of water now at UK's doorsteps. We'll find out in 5 years whether these new waves bring with them a beach chair and your favorite beverage or the chaos of a tsunami.

[Ralph]

Another thing that points to Gillispie using this kid for media attention is the consensus among those in the know that I've read that say Avery is just not very good, even among eighth-graders.

It just smacks of desperation to me, when placed alongside the hounding of every available leftover JUCO of '08 and offering any and every underclassman that has an interest in UK.

I think Gillispie knows he's in for another rough couple of years and is looking for a little more good news to use when incredulous fans go berserk.

[Alex]

I am not a college basketball recruiting expert, but do consider myself a fair practitioner of analytical thought.
So, in addition to your correct argument, I have another question for your readers who claim you've missed the point.
To the extent a kid being two years older than the rest of his class makes his eventual skill level more predictable, isn't it only because his ceiling is lower?